The weather diagnosis component of Stage II is now available. An online link to the document is Here.
The focus period for your diagnosis is 0000 UTC Feb 20 to 0000 UTC Feb 22. KDFW experienced much above average temperatures at the
start of the period, an abrupt wind shift from southerly to northerly between 2200 and 2300 UTC on Feb. 20 that was accompanied by a
21˚F cooling, and a 45˚F cooling between 0000 UTC Feb. 20 to 2000 UTC Feb 21. There were intermittent thunderstorms, two reports of
four-dot precipitation, and a total accumulation of 3.92” of rain during the 48 hour period.
Be certain that you complete every component of Stage II: an analysis of the time-series plots as discussed in the project description
along with the detail weather diagnosis. The term project is the most important assignment that you do in this course, so put forth
your best professional effort.
Stage 2
Overview of the Weather and Climate for the Data Collection Period: Use the time series plots to determine whether there is a general
upward or downward trend in data through the period. Write a brief (one but no more than 1½ pages double-spaced text) summary of the
trends in the data. Did the temperature go down/up as we might expect during fall/spring season? Was there an apparent trend in the dew
point or the relative humidity with time? How do the variables seem to correlate with each other? Comment on any interesting maxima and
minima in the time series. Note periods of extended above or below average temperatures, and abrupt changes in the weather. Were there
any record high or low temperatures? Were there any extreme weather events or extended periods of anomalous weather?
Detailed Diagnosis of Significant Weather: I will identify for you (at a later date) a period of 2 or 3 consecutive days of
“interesting weather” that will serve as the focus for your weather diagnosis. Broadly speaking, we can consider “interesting weather”
to correspond to abrupt changes in surface conditions; record breaking events (always possible but not likely during our 50-day
observation period); highly anomalous weather (extended heat wave or cold snap of a few days); strong winds (sustained winds faster
than 20-25 mph or gusts faster than 35-40 mph); severe thunderstorms with hail or heavy rain (and especially tornadoes); flooding
events; snow; etc. You will use course materials and other online weather resources to answer no more than three specific questions
that I pose about the weather situation. The diagnosis portion of the project should not exceed 1½ to 2 pages.
Specific instructions on the diagnosis component of Stage 2 will come when I announce the focus period and associated questions.
All components of Stage 2 must be assembled into a single pdf file. Your complete project (Stage 2)must include item in the following
order:
1) Analysis of time series.
2) Diagnosis of the weather over the 2- to 3-day focus period in terms of course concepts.
3) All images (e.g. weather maps, satellite, radar images, etc.) that support your diagnosis of the focus period. Make certain these
plots are properly rotated.
4) References.
Do not include a copy of the graph that you submitted in Stage 1.
Peer Review: Before you submit your project for grading, you will exchange your work to date for peer review. Your peers will read
through your work to date and make corrections to spelling and grammar, and make comments and suggestions on how to improve your term
project. This process is known as “peer review”, and it constitutes an essential component of scientific research.
Specific instructions about the peer review will be given in a separate document, shortly before the due date. It is only after you
thoughtfully consider and incorporate comments, suggestions and corrections of the peer reviews into your manuscript that you submit a
version of the project for grading.