The new All-Scotland Fire Authority wishes to maximise the effectiveness of the service it provides to the Public, given the reduced budget it will have for fire-fighting and fire- prevention over the next five – 10 years, at least. Accordingly, you have been commissioned to undertake a Quantitative Risk Analysis of Response Times to fires for an un-named town in Scotland
You must use the individualised values associated with your name in the data file, Incident_Response_Times.xlsx available on GCU-Learn and use it to write a report to the Senior Management of the new Authority.
2 Quantitative Risk Analysis: Incident response times [70 marks]
The new Chief Firemaster of the recently-created Scottish Fire Service is keen to integrate the several separate Boards into which the previous Service was divided. They were (code in brackets)
As part of an interim arrangement, these previously separate Boards will be re-designated as Areas, each with its own Deputy Firemaster, reporting to the Chief.
In order to make progress towards the harmonisation of the ‘quality’ of the Service throughout Scotland, the Chief Firemaster is establishing a National Maximum Response Time, by which an Incident must be attended by a Fire Crew. Failure to attend an Incident by this set time will result in a notional fine being levied on the Area (to be calculated by the minute). Incidents that are attended by less than a set number of minutes below the National Maximum will result in extra payments to the Area (also calculated by the minute).
Due to a number of geographic and organisational differences between the Regions/Areas, each one is believed to have exhibited different response times to incidents in their respective areas in the past. Accordingly, the Incidents Logs of all the Stations in each Area for the last 12 months have been obtained and the response times recorded, to the nearest minute. These have been recorded in the Incident_Response_Times.xlsx file.
Using only the data assigned to you, carry out the following steps:
• Estimate the incident response probability distributions for each Area in the new combined service using @Risk’s distribution Fitting facility
Scottish Fire Boards / Areas
Central Scotland (CS) Dumfries and Galloway (DG)
Fife (F) Grampian (G)
Highlands and Islands (HI) Lothian and Borders (LB)
Strathclyde Fire and Rescue (S)
Tayside (T)
• Construct a model that is capable of performing a 10,000-iteration Quantitative Risk Analysis to estimate fines- and rewards distributions for each area, and for Scotland as a whole.
• Write a report on this analysis which should explain the general scenario, your approach to modelling this particular problem and summarises the findings for each Area and for the country as a whole. You should make clear the limitations of the model, and what you might do to improve it, were the resources available to do so. ?3. Report (30 marks) ?You should write a report in two sections:
• You should explain the general scenario, your approach to modelling this particular problem. You should make clear the limitations of the model, and what you might do to improve it, were the resources available to do so.
• A summary of the findings for each Area and for the country as a whole. You should make good use of graphical methods to illustrate the main findings. ?The Report should be 2,000 words in length (+/- 10%).
• Prior to sending the files, you will need to re-run your Quantitative Risk simulation say 500 times and then re-save it. This is because the Excel file with 10,000 simulations’ results in it will be too large to e-mail. John will re-run your file 10,000 times to check your model’s results against those described in your Report.