Complete the first round of a three-round Delphi decision-making exercise. For the sake of simplicity, choose a future outcome that can be expressed as a single-number probability, or likelihood. Examples include
• The likelihood that X will be elected (to some office) in 20##.
• The likelihood that Y will win the Super Bowl / World Series / NBA Championship in 20##.
• The percentage of feature films that will consist entirely of computer-generated imagery by the year 20##.
The topic should be something that both you and your exercise participants care about, and also know something about (although you need not be experts).
Participants:
You will be the coordinator. Select three other persons as participants. Their cooperation will be important, so be sure to choose people you can count on. These can be either family members or close friends. Basic tools for process improvement: Flowchart. (Air University) Retrieved on 4 Oct 2014 from http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/navy/bpi_manual/mod6-flowchrt.pdf
Dalkey, N. (1969). The Delphi method: An experimental study of group opinion. Santa Monica, CA: Rand Corporation. (Retrieved on 28 Sep 2014 from online archives: http://immagic.com/eLibrary/ARCHIVES/GENERAL//RANDCORP/Rand_RM5888.pdf)
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