MKTG127 DEMOGRAPHIC FUNDAMENTALS
Data Analysis and Interpretation
(Due Date: Week 6 – Wednesday, 1 April 2015)
Overview
In this assignment, students will work on data analysis questions. The answers should include its working steps (e.g. you may refer tutorial exercises/solutions for its presentation). Any correct answers without its working out will not be given a full mark. This assignment focuses on population pyramids, basic demographic measures and life tables. Students must complete it independently. Penalties for cheating can be severe. Marks for each question are given in square brackets. The maximum credit for this assignment will be 10% of the total for the unit.
Submission
The hardcopy of assignment should be submitted to your tutor at the tutorial time. It should have a cover sheet which could be downloaded from the iLearn. The softcopy of your assignment should be uploaded to iLearn on the same submission day. No limit of maximum length of the answer to each question (Q1, Q2 and Q3).
Q1. Population Pyramid [30 Marks]
The estimated numbers of population in Japan and Pakistan by age groups and sex (males/females) in the years of 2005 and 2015 are presented in the following table (next page). Please note that the ages are grouped into 5-years age group, except for the ages 65-79 (as 15-years age group). Using this information, answer the following questions.
a. Select one out of two countries: Japan or Pakistan. Construct a properly formatted population pyramid for your selected country for the year 2005 and 2015. Be sure to use percentage (%) instead of number of population and include label information and title on each pyramid.
[22 Marks]
b. Write a few paragraphs describing and accounting for the population shapes and the changes in the population age structures of your selected countries between the year 2005 and the year 2015. Provide some possible explanations of the changes.
[8 Marks]
Note: It is recommended to create a population pyramid by excel program. You may follow the steps in ‘How to create a population pyramid’ (see Lecture slides in Week 1). The population pyramid drawn by hand is acceptable, provided it is neat, precise and labelled legibly.
Table 1: Population of Japan and Pakistan by Age and Sex: 2005 and 2015
Age Group Japan (in 000) Pakistan (in 000)
Year 2005 Year 2015 Year 2005 Year 2015
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
0-4 2,895 2,744 2,742 2,599 10,350 9,505 11,104 10,259
5-9 3,010 2,868 2,770 2,629 10,696 9,961 10,916 10,101
10-14 3,079 2,932 2,870 2,734 10,171 9,606 10,110 9,286
15-19 3,372 3,211 3,053 2,908 9,410 8,917 10,490 9,758
20-24 3,863 3,687 3,126 2,986 7,725 7,374 9,805 9,265
25-29 4,328 4,143 3,505 3,339 6,337 6,065 8,876 8,490
30-34 4,954 4,836 3,808 3,648 5,224 4,993 7,250 7,028
35-39 4,387 4,318 4,230 4,115 4,528 4,336 5,996 5,815
40-44 4,032 3,981 4,896 4,792 3,973 3,807 4,948 4,784
45-49 3,872 3,853 4,331 4,290 3,237 3,122 4,258 4,129
50-54 4,416 4,444 3,932 3,928 2,468 2,337 3,679 3,575
55-59 4,995 5,107 3,732 3,797 2,008 1,887 2,913 2,858
60-64 4,094 4,359 4,171 4,357 1,779 1,640 2,112 2,041
65-79 8,686 10,378 10,943 12,584 2,960 2,655 3,630 3,476
80-84 2,211 2,960 2,782 3,503 618 549 790 745
85+ 1,190 2,154 1,997 2,960 322 286 411 390
Total 63,384 65,975 62,888 65,169 81,806 77,040 97,288 92,000
Source: World Population Data
http://www.census.gov/population/international/data/worldpop/tool_population.php
Q2. Demographic Measures [30 Marks]
a. Basic Demographic Measures: Select one out of two countries from Q1: Japan or Pakistan. Using the 2005 and 2015 data for your selected country, answer the following questions:
i. Estimate the child dependency ratio, the aged dependency ratio, and the overall dependency ratio for the population.
ii. Estimate the child-woman ratio (i.e. the reproductive age group is 15-49 years)
iii. Estimate the overall sex ratio and the age-specific ratios.
iv. Write a paragraph describing and accounting for the changes in some basic demographic measured (i.e. the child dependency ratio, the aged dependency ratio, and the overall sex ratio) of your selected countries between the year 2005 and the year 2015.
Note: For all measures, please indicate the unit of measures and use two decimal points
[12 Marks]
b. Population Balance and Growth Rates:
(Note: use the exponential model for answering the population growth questions)
i. If the estimated population of Tokyo in Japan was 13,047,500 at 30/06/2010 and it was 13,282,200 at 30/06/2013, the total number of births for that period was 322,200 and the total number of deaths in the same period was 327,580. Net internal migration was 175,000. What are the natural increase and the net overseas migration for Tokyo City between 2010 and 2013?
[3 Marks]
ii. If after 30/06/2013 the population of Tokyo City grows continuously at a rate of 0.9% per annum, what will be the population on 31/12/2020?
[3 Marks]
iii. If the estimated population of Islamabad City in Pakistan was 1,670,500 on 30/06/2013 and it will be 2,043,300 on 31/12/2023, what is the average annual rate of population growth in Islamabad between the period of 30/06/2013 and 31/12/2023?
[3 Marks]
iv. Assuming that after 30/06/2013 the population of Tokyo and Islamabad grow continuously at the same rate 1.06% per annum, which city will have the longest doubling time of its population size and in what year?
[4 Marks]
v. Assuming that after 30/06/2013 the population of Tokyo grows continuously at the rate of 0.8% per annum and the population of Islamabad grows continuously at the rate of 1.6% per annum, in which calendar year will Tokyo’s population size equal that of Islamabad’s population?
[5 Marks]
Q3. Life Table [40 Marks]
The lx columns of abridged life tables for Japan females for 2012 and Pakistan females for 2012 are presented in the following table.
Age (x) lx
(number of survivors at exact age)
Japan (Female) Pakistan (Female)
0 100,000 100,000
1 99,790 93,580
10 99,664 91,139
20 99,529 90,320
30 99,217 89,096
40 98,720 87,387
50 97,649 84,007
60 95,368 76,533
70 90,811 60,381
90 49,509 6,020
Source: http://apps.who.int/gho/data
Using the information on lx values presented previously, please answer the following questions:
a. Compute the remaining columns (i.e. ndx, nqx, npx, nLx, Tx, and ex) of each life table (i.e. Japan and Pakistan). Please provide your answer by using 5 decimal places for the nqx and npx columns and 2 decimal places for ex.
Note: The interval is 20 years between ages 70 and 90. The value of life expectancy at age 90 (e90) is 6.02 for Japanese females and 3.12 for Pakistani females (i.e. use this information to compute the T90 values). For mortality at youngest age, calculate 1L¬0 = (0.3 x l0) + (0.7 x l1) and for all other values of nLx use nLx = (n/2) x (lx+ lx+n)
[20 Marks]
b. For each life table (Japan and Pakistan) calculate:
i. Life expectancy at birth.
ii. The life table crude death rate (CDR) for Japanese females and crude birth rate (CBR) for Pakistani females.
iii. The expected age at death of a female aged 20 exactly.
iv. The proportion of new-born females who survive to age 40 exactly.
v. The probability a female aged 10 will die before reaching age 40.
vi. The proportion of females aged 10-19 last birthday that survive the next ten years.
vii. The proportion of females aged 60 and above that will survive the next 10 years.
viii. The life table infant mortality rate (IMR) for each country.
ix. The probability a Japanese female aged 10 exactly and a Pakistani female aged 20 exactly both die in the next 40 years.
x. The value of 20L40
[20 Marks]