Subject: Business
Futures: Enterprise Opportunities and Sector Responses”
For your assignment you are asked to carry out a trend analysis and from that to justify and critique:
A sector response (e.g. new product, service, policy, resource development) to a threat for a either a public sector (e.g. health, prisons, universities) or industry sector (e.g. travel, automotive, pharmaceuticals)
E.g.
• Universities to replace lecturers with knowledge brokers
• Education sector policy to teach ‘personal financing’ in a response to increasing personal debt
• Automotive industry to set up car sharing infrastructure to encourage use of eco-cars
The writer must follow the instruction and go through and follow it as exactly mentioned.
1. Carry out a Trend Analysis
Horizon scan for possible trends (PESTLE factors) and consider how they might interact to create a problem or need in the future (say 2-10 years). You will need to consider:
• how the trends may interact to create a problem or need in the future. You may find it useful to use:
• Theories and Laws – well established pattern of behaviour e.g. Moore’s Law
• Trend extrapolation – continuing of trend in current trajectory
• System diagram to show the likely patterns of behaviour and interaction of trends in the future
• Qualitative predictions and opinions – based on expert judgment or key players
• Scenarios to depict a future view that is more long term
• how reliability and validity of the trend data e.g. source of data, time, forecast intensions, methodological issues etc.
• how certain the future you envisage will happen and the speed with which it will arrive
2. Justify and critique your response or opportunity
Consider the action that you think would be appropriate to resolve the problems or needs that you have argued that the future presents either by justifying the action in terms of a:
• response for a public or private sector: (e.g. new product or a service, policy, resource development
Use a structured approach such as:
Suitability, Acceptability, Feasibility (response), Timmons and Spinelli (opportunity), Longenecker (opportunity), Scenarios (both). Use of Strategic Management tools for external appraisal will also support your case where appropriate. (Any weaknesses in your opportunity/response may be expressed as ‘risks’.)