Threat anlalysis of a biological weapons attack by Iran against the U.S.
1) Identify a specific current or possible future national security threat either to one or more American national interests coming from a specific foreign or transnational actor or coming from a specific international event. (Do not choose a domestic actor or event.) Be sure to clearly identify exactly who the actor is or what the event is, what the specific type and nature of the threat is, and which U.S. national interest(s) is/are threatened. At least one vital and/or two variably important national interests must be identified as being threatened (or potentially threatened) by this actor or event.
Note: Step 1 is your paper topic.
2) Assess the threat to the U.S. national interest(s) arising from the actor or event identified. This should include an analysis of the nature, probability, imminence, & severity of the threat. If the threat arises from a specific actor, this entails estimating its capabilities (what the actor could do, if so inclined) and estimating its intentions (what course or courses of action you believe the actor is most likely to choose). Also identify which specific U.S. and/or friendly/allied Strategic Center(s) of Gravity would be (or would most likely be) threatened.
During this stage, you should attempt to answer any or all of the following questions:
What is the likelihood of the threat actually occurring? Does/do the actor or actors involved currently have the intent to carry out the threat? If not, under what conditions or circumstances would it/they have such intent? How much and what kind(s) of power do the actor or actors involved possess and where/how would it be used to carry out the threat? Is there a past history of such threats by the same actor(s)? What is (or would be) the strategic or policy objective of the actor(s)? Operationally, why would the actor(s) choose this specific type of threat? Under what circumstances or conditions might the actor(s) carry out the threat? What are the prospects for success for the actor(s) involved, given the assets and liabilities of any non-U.S. actors likely to oppose the threat?
For measuring severity of threat, think of the spectrum of conflict. For measuring capabilities, think of the elements of military power.
3) Identify key objectives necessary to ensure elimination or alleviation of the threat and offer specific strategies and/or policy recommendations to achieve those objectives. You should utilize the DIME “toolkit” in your assessment: which of the instruments of power would best be applied to deal with the threat and in what manner? Also identify key adversary Strategic Centers of Gravity that should be targeted (if required by your concluding analysis). Finally, be sure to carefully consider the probable or expected costs involved in your recommendations and weigh them against the benefit of eliminating or alleviating the threat. Costs under consideration should include human lives lost, economic/financial costs, public opinion/morale, impact on international prestige/credibility, etc.
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