Project Risk Management

using references provided in the file?the main reading text book is Chris Chapman and Stephen Ward (2011), How to Manage Project Opportunity and Risk: why uncertainty management can be a much better approach than risk management, John Wiley & Sons. .
Project Risk Management Assessment Essay Revised Version

Start to make notes for your assessment essay from the outset, addressing all three parts, with an initial focus on part 1. Additional reading, using references provided in the text book in a selective manner, should be used to support the understanding developed by the lectures, the case studies, and reading the text book.

Part 1 40% of the total marks 1200 words maximum

Explain concisely in your own words what you believe are the key overall features of a PUMP approach to project risk management in the execution and delivery strategy shaping stage of a project’s lifecycle. Compare these features with the PMI PIMBOK approach or any other form of common practice you are familiar with if you find this helpful, but focus on the PUMP approach. Use examples to illustrate your discussion if you wish, but concentrate on concepts and principles. This will be a largely descriptive summary of your interpretation of the lectures and associated reading. It will demonstrate your grasp of the central core of the unit’s material as a whole, and should be approached with a view to demonstrating this understanding.

Part 2 30% of the total marks 900 words maximum

For the identify phase or the focus phase of the PUMP approach, in the execution and delivery strategy shaping stage of a project’s lifecycle, explain concisely in your own words what you believe are the key features of a PUMP approach, comparing these features with the PMI PIMBOK approach or any other form of common practice you are familiar with. Explain why you chose the phase selected. Your discussion should demonstrate your ability to understand a particular area of the course material in depth, based on selective reading, critical analysis and the case study exercise. Use examples to illustrate your discussion if you wish, making use of the Samdo or Transcon case studies if you wish, but concentrate on concepts and principles. Build on your Part 1 answer, avoiding repetition of earlier discussion.

Part 3 30% of the total marks 900 words maximum

For the evaluate phase of the PUMP approach, in the execution and delivery strategy shaping stage of a project’s lifecycle, explain concisely in your own words what you believe are the key features of a PUMP approach, comparing these features with the PMI PIMBOK approach or any other form of common practice you are familiar with. Your discussion should demonstrate your ability to understand a particular area of the course material in depth, based on selective reading, critical analysis and the case study exercise. Use examples to illustrate your discussion if you wish, and make use of the Samdo or Transcon case studies if you wish, but concentrate on concepts and principles. Build on your Parts 1 and 2 answers, avoiding repetition.
Purpose of the assessment essay

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One obvious purpose is to provide a basis for assessing your performance in terms of achieving the desired learning outcomes. The particular form of assessment being used is also intended to encourage an effective approach to becoming familiar with the material the unit covers in a critical manner. You may find it useful to imagine you are trying to explain to yourself or someone else what the key learning points were in relation to your attendance at lectures, reading, and critically assessing both, viewing the essay as a framework for consolidating your thinking. You may use a case study context or other examples to illustrate points if you wish, but concentrate on key generic issues and avoid discussing the details of a particular example or case study.
The main text for this module
Chris Chapman and Stephen Ward (2011), How to Manage Project Opportunity and Risk: why uncertainty management can be a much better approach than risk management, John Wiley & Sons. You will need to read the third edition, which involves significant changes.
Other useful texts and guides:

1. Stephen Ward (2005), Risk Management: organisation and context, Witherby. Takes a compatible view of risk management from a broader corporate perspective.

2. Dale Cooper and Chris Chapman (1987), Risk Analysis for Large Projects: models, methods and cases, John Wiley & Sons. Emphasis on large projects (detailed descriptions of four case studies in four chapters) and quantitative modelling aspects of project risk analysis as distinct from project risk management and project management more generally.

3. Stephen Grey (1995), Practical risk assessment for project management, John Wiley & Sons. Describes how to make a quantitative evaluation of the uncertainty affecting cost, schedule and revenue estimates in a project based business. Introduces the software tool @RISK and the rest of the book assumes that the reader will be using @RISK, either in Lotus 123 release 2 or Excel 4. A very accessible text aimed at a practitioner which provides useful practical guidance on how to go about modelling uncertainty as part of a risk analysis.

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4. D.B. Hertz and H. Thomas (1983), Risk Analysis and its Applications, John Wiley & Sons. Uses an investment appraisal focus on project. Sets out the standard finance approaches to risk evaluation, decision trees, Monte Carlo simulation. Orientated towards quantitative techniques for evaluation. Limited discussion of projects and management of risks per se.

5. APM – Association for Project Management (2004), Risk Analysis and Management (PRAM) Guide. APM Publishing, High Wycombe. The professional association guidelines of the UK based APM. One of the most sophisticated guidelines, but now somewhat dated and open to some serious criticisms discussed during the module.

6. PMI – Project Management Institute (2012 or earlier editions), A Guide to the Project Management Book of Knowledge: PMBOK (Project Management Book of Knowledge) Guide, chapter 11. PMI, Upper Darby, PA. The professional association guidelines of the US based PMI, widely used world-wide. One of the least sophisticated guidelines. Kept up-to-date, but still open to some serious criticisms discussed during the module.

7. ICE , FA and IA – Institution of Civil Engineers, Faculty of Actuaries and Institute of Actuaries (2005), RAMP Risk Analysis and Management for Projects. Thomas Telford: London. A useful guide with a focus on the business case.

8. OGC – Office of Government Commerce (2010 or earlier editions), Management of Risk (MoR): Guidance for Practitioners. The Stationary Office: London. Widely used in the UK as a government standard.

9. Standards Association of Australia (1999 or later versions), AS/NZS 4360 Risk Management. www.standards.com.au The 1999 version was used world-wide as the basis of other standards.

10. Terry Williams (2002), Modeling Complex Projects. John Wiley & Sons. A useful book taking a somewhat different approach to that of the course texts.

11. DF Cooper, S Grey, G Raymond and P Walker (2004), Managing Risk in Large Projects and Complex Procurements. John Wiley & Sons. Another useful book which takes a somewhat different approach to that of the course texts.

12. HM Treasury (2003), The Green Book, Appraisal and Evaluation in Central Government, HM Treasury, 1 Horse Guards Road, London SW1A 2HQ. Defines UK government advice on project appraisal at the time which will be critically assessed, along with earlier approaches and many private sector approaches to discounted cash flow analysis.

Other useful reading

1. C.B. Chapman and S.C. Ward (2008), Developing and implementing a balanced incentive and risk sharing contract, Construction Management and Economics, 26(6), pp. 659-669.

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2. S.C. Ward and C.B. Chapman (2008), Stakeholders and uncertainty management in projects, Construction Management and Economics, 26(6), 2008, pp.563-577.

3. C.B. Chapman, S.C. Ward and I. Harwood (2006), Minimising the effects of dysfunctional corporate culture in estimation and evaluation processes: a constructively simple approach, International Journal of Project Management, 24(2), pp106-115.

4. C.B.Chapman (2006), Key points of contention in framing assumptions for risk and uncertainty management, International Journal of Project Management, 24(4), pp303-313.

5. C.B. Chapman, S.C. Ward and J.H. Klein (2006), An optimised multiple test framework for project selection in the public sector, with a nuclear waste disposal case based example, International Journal of Project Management, 24(5), pp373-384).

6. P.W.G Morris and G.H. Hough (1987), The dimensions of project success, chapter 11 in The anatomy of major projects – a study of the reality of project management, John Wiley.

7. J.M. Nicholas (1990), Project failure, success, and lessons learned, chapter 18 in Managing business and engineering projects, Prentice Hall.

8. S.C. Ward, B. Curtis, C.B. Chapman (1991), Objectives and performance in construction projects, Construction Management and Economics, 9, pp343-353.

9. S.C. Ward (1999), Requirements for an effective project risk management process, Project Management Journal, 30(3), 37-43.

10. S.C. Ward (1999), Assessing and managing important risks, International Journal of Project Management, 17(6), pp331-336.

11. S.C. Ward and C.B. Chapman (2003), Transforming project risk management into project uncertainty management, International Journal of Project Management, 21(2), 97-105.

12. P. Goodwin and G. Wright (2003), Decision Analysis for Management Judgement, Third edition, John Wiley & Sons: Chapter 9: Biases in probability assessment; Chapter 10: methods for eliciting probabilities; Chapter 11: Decisions involving groups of individuals.

13. J.F. Yates, (1992), Risk Taking Behaviour, John Wiley & Sons: Chapter 4: Individual differences in risk taking; Chapter 6: Group risk taking: selected topics; Chapter 7: Stress, affect and risk taking.

14. R.M. Hogarth (1986), Judgement and Choice, John Wiley & Sons: Chapter 3: Combining information for prediction; Appendix B – Notes on probability assessment.

15. C.B. Chapman and D.F. Cooper (1983), Parametric discounting, Omega, 11(3), pp303-310.

A key journal

The International Journal of Project Management frequently contains useful articles on project risk management.

Websites

www.apmgroup.co.uk/risk.htm Association for Project Management, SIG on risk management.
www.pmi.org US Project Management Institute.

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